Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket
4c
Yes price
Kalshi
No live price
Yes price
Cross-venue gap
Not comparable yet
Both venues need a live Yes price to compare.
Summary
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 4 cents. No linked Kalshi market is tracked for this question yet. The most recent whale trade on Polymarket was a $49,154 buy of No at 96c, 3 days ago.
Whale activity on this market
| Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Notional | Wallet record | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet #36620 | Buy | No | 96c | $49,154 | not yet ranked | 3 days ago |
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